Feature · Data as of 2026-09-29 · All amounts in Chinese yuan at today's prices
¥500 of your own money, or ¥1,500.
In retirement, the gap is ¥364 a month.
Of the ¥1,500 a month that goes into the state pension, you pay ¥500; your employer pays ¥1,000. From 63 it pays ¥4,170 a month until you die. Put ¥1,500 of your own money into the S&P 500 every month and the base case pays ¥4,534, until age 90. Three times the money, 9% more income. Bitcoin is the other extreme: ¥72,575 a month at best, nothing at worst.
Don't choose
The pension keeps you alive. The market is your shot at more. Keep paying in: it is the cheapest floor money can buy. Then put an extra ¥1,500 a month into the market, and your retirement income could double.
You pay only a third of your pension
Assume total pension contributions of ¥1,500 a month. At Shenzhen's rates the employer pays 16% and the employee 8%, which implies a contribution base of ¥6,250. You pay just ¥500; your employer pays ¥1,000. Contribute for 30 years, retire at 63, and the current formula pays ¥4,170 a month (basic pension ¥2,631 + individual account ¥1,538) for as long as you live, raised every year in line with wages and prices.
You put in ¥0.18m of your own money and, living to 90, take out ¥1.35m. You are even by 67. Your employer covers the other two-thirds. No savings product offers a floor like that, and none of them rules out losing everything.
¥0.22m became ¥11.84m, after losing 74% on the way
Start with history. Buy ¥1,500 on the first trading day of every month (converted to dollars at that day's rate), reinvest dividends and convert back to yuan. The table shows nominal amounts, not adjusted for inflation.
| Option | Period | Invested | Value now | Multiple | Annualised | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 · full 30 years | from 1996-10 · 360 months | ¥0.54m | ¥3.29m | 6.1x | 10.3% | -49.6% |
| Nasdaq 100 · full 30 years | from 1996-10 · 360 months | ¥0.54m | ¥6.77m | 12.5x | 13.9% | -71.0% |
| BTC · all 12 years of data | from 2014-10 · 144 months | ¥0.22m | ¥11.84m | 54.8x | 61.3% | -74.3% |
Before 1999 the Nasdaq 100 is filled in with the index itself. There is no reliable daily data for BTC before 2014 or for ETH before 2017, so crypto has no 30-year history to test.
Dec 2017 (the start of the ETH data) to Sep 2026: account value from investing ¥1,500 a month, in units of ¥10k, nominal. The pension has no market value, so it is not on the chart.
| Same period (106 months, ¥0.16m invested) | Value now | Multiple | Annualised | Worst paper loss | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ¥0.33m | 2.0x | 15.7% | -4.4% | -12.2% |
| Nasdaq 100 | ¥0.41m | 2.6x | 20.6% | -4.0% | -19.9% |
| BTC | ¥0.81m | 5.1x | 35.3% | -50.6% | -67.8% |
| BTC + ETH, half each | ¥0.78m | 4.9x | 34.6% | -59.7% | -71.8% |
In hindsight every line beat doing nothing. But the crypto accounts were halved and halved again: down 68% in 2022. The only people who got these numbers are the ones who did not sell then, and kept buying.
¥72,575 a month at best, zero at worst
History will not simply repeat. Each option gets conservative, base and optimistic scenarios for annual returns after inflation and fees; crypto gets a fourth, zero. Save ¥1,500 a month from age 33 for 30 years, then draw it down evenly from 63 to 90.
Base case: monthly amount available from age 63 to 90, at today's prices. The pension pays for life; the others stop when the money runs out.
| Monthly draw, age 63–90annual return · pot at 63 | Zero | Conservative | Base | Optimistic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State pension | — | ¥4,170, for life | ||
| S&P 500 | — | ¥3,1834% · ¥1.03m | ¥4,5346% · ¥1.47m | ¥6,5638% · ¥2.13m |
| Nasdaq 100 | — | ¥3,1834% · ¥1.03m | ¥5,4457% · ¥1.76m | ¥9,62610% · ¥3.12m |
| BTC | ¥0everything lost | ¥1,6670% · ¥0.54m | ¥9,62610% · ¥3.12m | ¥72,57520% · ¥23.51m |
| BTC 50% + ETH 50% | ¥0everything lost | ¥1,6670% · ¥0.54m | ¥6,5638% · ¥2.13m | ¥48,11818% · ¥15.59m |
Scenario ranges (log scale). Each bar runs from conservative to optimistic; the dot is the base case. Further right means more money, a longer bar more uncertainty.
Scenario assumptions: S&P 500 4% / 6% / 8%, close to its real return of 6%–7% a year over the past century; Nasdaq 100 4% / 7% / 10%; BTC 0% / 10% / 20%, plus zero; BTC and ETH half each 0% / 8% / 18%, plus zero. These are judgement calls, not forecasts.
The floor and the ladder
The pension is the floor: ¥4,170 a month, in full, whatever markets do. The extra ¥1,500 in the market is the ladder, and it decides how high you climb.
Even if the crypto goes to zero, the pension floor is still there. That is the case for paying into the pension and saving spare cash on top: the worst outcome is no worse than the pension alone.
The costs, up front
Over the past 30 years the maximum drawdown was -49.6% for a monthly S&P 500 plan, -71.0% for the Nasdaq 100 and -74.3% for BTC. The biggest risk is not buying at the top. It is stopping or selling in a crash.
BTC and ETH produce no cash flow; their price rests on consensus. Trouble with the technology, regulation or market confidence could shrink the account sharply or wipe it out.
In mainland China, crypto-exchange business is classed as illegal financial activity. Holding coins is not illegal for individuals, but trading channels and money moving in and out have no legal protection. US stocks are usually bought through QDII funds or exchange-traded ETFs, which often face quota limits and trade at a premium.
Fund fees plus withholding tax on US dividends cost roughly 1 percentage point a year (the scenarios already assume returns after fees). A stronger yuan shrinks returns converted back home; a weaker one does the opposite.
Retirement is decades away. Contribution rates, the payout formula and Shenzhen's own benefit base could all change. These figures use today's rules.
From age 63 the balance is assumed to earn nothing and is drawn down evenly. In reality the money left stays in the market and could end up larger or smaller. The pension never runs out.
Method and sources
- Pension: Shenzhen basic pension insurance for enterprise employees, employer 16%, employee 8%. Basic pension = benefit base × (1 + contribution index) ÷ 2 × years of contributions × 1%, using Shenzhen's 2025 benefit base of ¥11,293 a month. Individual-account pension = account balance ÷ 117 (the payout months for retirement at 63). Everything is at today's prices and assumes the contribution base, the benefit base, account interest and pension increases all grow in line with wages. The real annual return is the internal rate of return on contributions and payouts treated as cash flows.
- Backtest: SPY for the S&P 500 and QQQ for the Nasdaq 100 (the index itself before 1999), dividends reinvested; BTC and ETH in dollars; USD/CNY for currency, with a fixed rate of 8.28 before 2001. Data from Yahoo Finance as of 2026-09-29; current exchange rate 6.697. The backtest ignores trading costs, fund fees and tax.
- Scenarios: ¥1,500 a month (rising with inflation, so always worth ¥1,500 in today's money) for 360 months. The balance at 63 is drawn down evenly over 324 months, with no return earned while drawing.
Sources: Shenzhen Human Resources and Social Security Bureau and Guangdong Department of Human Resources and Social Security (benefit base, contribution rates); State Council measures on gradually raising the statutory retirement age; Yahoo Finance (prices and exchange rates).
This article is research and modelling based on public data and stated assumptions. It is written for a general audience, does not address anyone's personal finances and is not investment advice. Past returns do not predict future results. Markets carry risk.
Data as of 2026-09-29 · 雅虎财经（行情与汇率）；深圳市人社局、广东省人社厅（社保参数）