Global Macro Weekly · Week 39, 2026 (Sep 21–Sep 25)
Japan hiked and the yen fell anyway. Mexico held and the peso lost 3.2%.
This market only respects dollar rates.
In September the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan all raised rates, while Switzerland and Mexico stood pat. The result was the same either way: 9 of the 10 major currencies fell against the dollar, and only the Korean won rose. The average yield on global government debt neared 4%, the highest since 2007. Money is running to wherever dollar rates are highest.
The week's story
Hiking won't save a currency unless you out-hike America
The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.25% on Sept 18, the highest since 1995, but two of nine members voted against and Governor Ueda promised nothing more, so the yen fell instead of rising. It lost another 1.7% against the dollar this week, taking USD/JPY to 158.8, close to the 160 line where intervention risk returns.
Standing still cost even more. Banxico voted unanimously on Sept 24 to hold at 6.5% and explicitly declined to follow the Fed; the peso lost 3.2% on the week, including a 1.37% drop on Sept 23, its worst day in six months. The Swiss National Bank held at 0% and the franc slipped 0.4%. Of ten major currencies, only the won rose against the dollar.
Government bonds sold off everywhere at once
The average yield on Bloomberg's global government bond index rose to 3.99% on Wednesday, close to its highest since 2007. UK gilt yields hit a post-2008 high, Japanese government bonds held above 3% and the German 10-year reached its highest since 2011. The causes arrived together: heavy issuance, an oil shock reviving inflation, and central banks still hiking.
The prices tell the story: US long Treasuries (TLT) lost 2.4% on the week, emerging-market dollar bonds (EMB) 1.3% and non-US government bonds (BWX) 0.7%. No bond was safe this week.
Asian chips up, Chinese tech down
Korea's KOSPI gained 2.7% as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix absorbed selling from retail and foreign investors and held the 7,000 line. Taiwan rose 1.8% and the Nikkei 225 2.1%.
In the same region, the Hang Seng fell 1.0% for a third straight weekly loss: on Sept 23 reports of a Beijing data-security probe into DeepSeek and Moonshot AI knocked it down 1%, and the Trump–Xi summit ended Friday with little to show beyond a two-month extension of the trade truce. The Shanghai Composite lost 0.6%.
A rate hike does not save a currency. Out-hiking America might.
World stocks
Country indices in local currency; MSCI ACWI and emerging markets (EEM) are dollar-priced ETFs.
In local currency most of the world rose: Korea +2.7%, Mexico +2.6%, Japan +2.1%. In dollars the picture changes. Mexican stocks rose 2.6% but the peso fell 3.2%, so a dollar investor lost about 0.8% this week; the Nikkei's 2.1% shrinks to about 0.3% after the yen's slide. Europe rose modestly (Stoxx 50 +1.1%, DAX +0.4%), while India, Brazil, Australia and Hong Kong fell.
Currencies: who is gaining on the dollar
Positive means the currency rose against the dollar.
| Currency | Quote | vs USD · week | vs USD · YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Won | USD/1,367.36 | +0.9% | +5.2% |
| Yuan | USD/6.7111 | -0.1% | +4.2% |
| Rupee | USD/96.16 | -0.4% | -6.6% |
| Swiss franc | USD/0.8280 | -0.4% | -4.4% |
| Euro | 1.1375 | -0.9% | -3.2% |
| Pound | 1.3211 | -1.1% | -1.9% |
| Real | USD/5.1905 | -1.3% | +5.5% |
| Australian dollar | 0.7008 | -1.5% | +4.6% |
| Yen | USD/158.81 | -1.7% | -1.5% |
| Peso | USD/17.74 | -3.2% | +1.4% |
The dollar index closed the week at 100.97 (+0.75). Quotes marked USD/ are units per dollar.
The dollar index rose 0.75 to 101.0. The biggest losers were the Mexican peso (-3.2%), the yen (-1.7%) and the Australian dollar (-1.5%), three currencies with the same problem: domestic rates that cannot keep up with America's. The yuan barely moved (-0.06%) under tight management. The won was the only major currency to gain on the dollar (+0.9%), supported by chip exports and inflows.
Rates and central banks
| Central bank | Policy rate | Latest decision | Next meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve | 3.75%–4.00% | Sep 16: +25bp, first hike in over three years; dots point to one more this year | Oct 27–28 |
| European Central Bank | Deposit rate 2.50% | Sep 10: +25bp, second hike this year | Oct 29 |
| Bank of Japan | 1.25% | Sep 18: +25bp, highest since 1995, 7-2 vote | Oct 29–30 |
| Swiss National Bank | 0% | Sep 24: held, softened FX intervention wording | Dec 10 |
| Banco de México | 6.50% | Sep 24: held unanimously, declined to follow the Fed | Nov 5 |
| Reserve Bank of Australia | 4.35% | Markets expect a hike to 4.60% next week | Sep 29 |
From each central bank's announcements, checked at publication.
| US Treasuries | Week close | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year Treasury | 4.81% | +5bp | +134bp |
| 10-year Treasury | 5.17% | +16bp | +99bp |
| 30-year Treasury | 5.49% | +15bp | +65bp |
| 10-year real yield (TIPS) | 2.83% | +15bp | +90bp |
| 10-year breakeven inflation | 2.34% | +1bp | +9bp |
| 10-year government yields (monthly) | Latest month | Yield | vs prior month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 2026-08 | 5.01% | +10bp |
| UK | 2026-08 | 4.99% | +6bp |
| France | 2026-08 | 4.00% | +15bp |
| Italy | 2026-08 | 3.99% | +11bp |
| Canada | 2026-08 | 3.67% | +13bp |
| Germany | 2026-08 | 3.18% | +11bp |
| Japan | 2026-08 | 2.94% | +15bp |
OECD monthly data via FRED, usually one to two months old: use it for levels. For this week's moves see the bond ETFs below and the text.
| Bond ETFs | Week | 1M | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Non-US investment grade (BNDX, hedged) | -0.2% | -1.5% | -1.0% |
| Non-US government bonds (BWX, unhedged) | -0.7% | -2.5% | -3.8% |
| US high yield (HYG) | -0.9% | -2.0% | +0.5% |
| EM dollar bonds (EMB) | -1.3% | -2.9% | -0.9% |
| US long Treasuries (TLT) | -2.4% | -4.4% | -6.2% |
Bond prices move against yields: a falling ETF means rising yields.
The US 10-year yield rose 16 basis points to 5.17% and pulled the world up with it. Monthly data show UK and Australian 10-year yields were already near 5% in August, above America's, with Germany at 3.2% and Japan at 2.9%.
Central banks have split into two camps: the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan are hiking; Switzerland and Mexico are waiting; and the Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to hike to 4.60% next Tuesday. The waiters all paid for it in their currencies this week.
Commodities and crypto
| Asset | Last | Week | 1M | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US natural gas | 3.20 | +9.8% | +12.5% | -13.3% |
| Bitcoin | 84,034.92 | +3.6% | +6.3% | -4.0% |
| Ether | 2,690.48 | +1.8% | +7.4% | -9.3% |
| Copper | 6.70 | +1.2% | +1.5% | +18.9% |
| Brent crude | 104.32 | +0.4% | +18.8% | +71.4% |
| Corn | 528.25 | +0.1% | +2.8% | +20.0% |
| Wheat | 703.25 | -1.5% | -3.7% | +38.7% |
| Gold | 4,321.20 | -2.3% | -7.1% | -0.5% |
| Silver | 64.25 | -3.5% | -5.5% | -8.4% |
| WTI crude | 92.41 | -7.9% | +12.4% | +60.9% |
Oil, gas, metals and grains are front-month futures.
Brent edged up 0.4% to close at $104 while WTI fell 7.9% to $92, widening the gap to about $12: hopes for a US–Iran truce hit the US benchmark while Middle East supply risk propped up the global one. Rising real yields weighed on precious metals, with gold down 2.3% and silver 3.5%; natural gas rose 9.8% and copper 1.2%. Bitcoin gained 3.6%, tracking tech.
What to watch next week
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 | Reserve Bank of Australia decision | Widely expected to hike to 4.60%, the highest since 2011; the Aussie dollar already fell 1.5% this week. Can a hike stop the slide? |
| Sep 30 | China official September PMIs | After three down weeks in Hong Kong, domestic demand is the only data that can change the story; mainland markets close for a week from Oct 1 |
| Oct 1 | Bank of Japan Tankan (Q3) | Big-company confidence decides whether the BOJ dares to hike again in late October, with the yen one step from 160 |
| Oct 2 | Euro area September flash inflation | August was 3.3%; if it rises again, the ECB will struggle to say it is done for the year on Oct 29 |
| Oct 2 | US September payrolls | The dollar's strength rests on US rates; strong hiring all but locks in an October hike and adds pressure on every other currency |
Method and sources
- Weekly change = last close of this week ÷ last close of the previous week − 1 (2026-09-21 to 2026-09-25); where a market was closed, the latest trading day is used.
- Stock indices, FX, commodities, crypto and bond ETFs from Yahoo Finance (delayed); Treasury yields from FRED; other 10-year government yields are OECD monthly data via FRED.
- Currency moves are expressed as each currency against the dollar; positive means it strengthened.
Reporting cited this week
- The Fed's September hike: Charles Schwab
- The ECB's September hike: ECB
- The BOJ's 7-2 hike: CNBC, 9/18
- The yen nearing 160: Bloomberg, 9/24
- The SNB holds at 0%: CNBC, 9/24
- Banxico's hold and the peso: Rio Times
- Global yields near 4%: Bloomberg, 9/24
- Korean chips hold 7,000: KED Global, 9/23
- Hang Seng's third weekly loss: Business Today
- The Trump-Xi summit: CBS News
- Oil: WTI and Brent: EnergyNow
This weekly is a research record based on public market data, written for all readers. It does not address anyone's personal finances and is not investment advice. Data are delayed; original sources prevail.
Data as of 2026-09-25 · 雅虎财经(股指、汇率、商品、加密资产、债券 ETF);FRED(美债收益率、OECD 各国 10 年期国债收益率)