US Weekly · Week 39, 2026 (Sep 21–Sep 25)
The Nasdaq 100 rose 3.3%. The equal-weight S&P fell.
Megacaps are partying. Bonds are sounding the alarm.
This week's rally belonged to a few: Meta jumped 13% and semiconductors 5.9%, but the equal-weight S&P 500 slipped 0.2% and the Russell 2000 lost 0.8%. Meanwhile the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.22%, the highest since 2007, and high-yield spreads widened 25 basis points. Stocks are celebrating AI; bonds and credit are bracing for rate hikes.
The week's story
The 10-year nears 5.2%, and it is real yields doing the climbing
The 10-year Treasury yield rose 16 basis points to close at 5.17%, touching 5.22% on Thursday, its highest since June 2007. The 30-year hit 5.50%, a high last seen in 2004, and mortgage rates broke 7%.
The mix matters: 15 of the 16 basis points came from the real yield (10-year TIPS at 2.83%), while breakeven inflation moved just 1 basis point. The market is not pricing more inflation; it is pricing more expensive money. The Fed raised rates on Sept 16 for the first time in more than three years, to 3.75%–4.00%, and its dot plot points to one more hike this year. Governor Barr said this week that more increases are needed, and traders put the odds of an October hike above 75%.
A dangerously narrow rally
The Nasdaq set a record on Tuesday and the Nasdaq 100 gained 3.3% on the week. The engine was Meta: its Muse AI assistant hit No. 1 on Apple's US App Store, Wells Fargo lifted its target from $640 to $796, and the stock jumped 11% on Monday and 13% for the week. Semiconductors (SMH) followed with 5.9%.
Look underneath and 6 of the 11 sectors fell, the equal-weight S&P 500 slipped 0.2% and small caps in the Russell 2000 lost 0.8%. The index rose; most stocks did not.
Oil falls 7.9%, and WTI and Brent part ways
WTI crude settled at $92.41 on Friday, down 7.9% for the week and its first weekly loss since late August. Two reasons: hope for a US–Iran truce, and fresh cuts to 2026 demand forecasts from OPEC (its fourth in a row) and the IEA. Brent still edged up 0.4% and held above $100: Middle East supply risk weighs on global oil, while truce hopes hit only the US benchmark. Energy stocks fell 3.0%.
Stocks see AI. Bonds see rate hikes. One of them will have to change its mind.
Winners and losers
| Megacaps | Week | 1M | YTD | Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meta | +13.0% | +30.6% | +14.2% | $751.66 |
| Microsoft | +4.5% | +4.0% | +7.4% | $516.17 |
| Tesla | +2.2% | +7.6% | -17.3% | $372.11 |
| Apple | +1.5% | +8.8% | +25.8% | $341.07 |
| Nvidia | +1.3% | +7.5% | +21.0% | $225.07 |
| Broadcom | -1.2% | -0.6% | +2.5% | $352.81 |
| Amazon | -1.6% | -4.1% | +8.2% | $249.67 |
| Alphabet | -1.6% | +0.6% | +10.1% | $343.92 |
The best and worst sectors were almost 7 points apart: technology up 3.6%, utilities down 3.2%. Every rate-sensitive sector (utilities, real estate, financials) fell; with yields above 5%, bond proxies lose their appeal. Growth gained 2.4% against 0.1% for value, and momentum rose 2.9% while low volatility slipped. Even the megacaps split: Meta up 13% and Microsoft 4.5%, Alphabet and Amazon each down about 1.6%.
Rates and credit
| Measure | Week close | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-year Treasury | 4.81% | +5bp | +134bp |
| 10-year Treasury | 5.17% | +16bp | +99bp |
| 30-year Treasury | 5.49% | +15bp | +65bp |
| 10y minus 2y spread | 0.36% | +11bp | -35bp |
| 10-year real yield (TIPS) | 2.83% | +15bp | +90bp |
| 10-year breakeven inflation | 2.34% | +1bp | +9bp |
| High-yield spread | 2.93% | +25bp | +12bp |
| Investment-grade spread | 0.81% | +4bp | +2bp |
| Effective fed funds rate | 3.88% | +0bp | +24bp |
Source: FRED (St. Louis Fed), last trading day with data this week. Spreads are option-adjusted (ICE BofA).
The curve steepened: the 2-year rose only 5 basis points, the 10-year 16, and the 10s-2s spread widened to 0.36 points. With the long end selling off hardest, the pressure is coming from term premium and deficits, not just the policy rate.
Two contrasts deserve attention. Bond volatility (MOVE) jumped 15 points to 96 while the VIX sat still at 14.9, and high-yield spreads widened 25 basis points to 2.93% even as the S&P rose. Credit usually notices expensive money before stocks do.
Across assets
| Asset | Last | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | 3.20 | +9.8% | -13.3% |
| Bitcoin | 84,034.92 | +3.6% | -4.0% |
| Nikkei 225 | 66,364.20 | +2.1% | +31.8% |
| Ether | 2,690.48 | +1.8% | -9.3% |
| USD/JPY | 158.81 | +1.7% | +1.5% |
| Copper | 6.70 | +1.2% | +18.9% |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,302.82 | +1.1% | +8.7% |
| Brent crude | 104.32 | +0.4% | +71.4% |
| USD/CNY | 6.71 | +0.1% | -4.1% |
| Shanghai Composite | 3,888.37 | -0.6% | -2.0% |
| EUR/USD | 1.14 | -0.9% | -3.2% |
| Hang Seng | 24,510.09 | -1.0% | -4.4% |
| Gold | 4,321.20 | -2.3% | -0.5% |
| Silver | 64.25 | -3.5% | -8.4% |
| WTI crude | 92.41 | -7.9% | +60.9% |
FX changes follow the quote: USD/JPY up means a stronger dollar. Oil and gas are front-month futures.
Rising real yields weighed on precious metals: gold fell 2.3% and silver 3.5%. Natural gas bucked the trend with a 9.8% gain. The dollar index rose 0.75 to 101.0 and USD/JPY climbed 1.7%; a weaker yen lifted the Nikkei 225 by 2.1%, while the Hang Seng fell 1.0% and the Shanghai Composite 0.6%. Bitcoin rose 3.6%, tracking tech.
Stocks we cover
| Ticker | Our rating | Week | vs S&P | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | Neutral | +4.5% | +3.3% | +7.4% |
| MCD | Buy | -4.7% | -5.9% | -21.1% |
| KO | Buy | -0.5% | -1.7% | +28.0% |
Microsoft rose 4.5%, beating the S&P by 3.3 points; we rate it Neutral because at 26x earnings the good news is already in the price. McDonald's fell 4.7%: at its Sept 23 investor day it pledged about $8.5B of franchisee support through 2036 and the stock dropped 5.6% that day. We rated it Buy after that drop. Coca-Cola slipped 0.5%. Note: the table shows current ratings, confirmed on Sept 30. See the Microsoft, McDonald's and Coca-Cola reports.
What to watch next week
| Date | Event | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | Micron earnings (after the close) | Semis just rose 5.9% in a week; AI memory demand now has to show up in real orders |
| Sep 30 | August PCE prices | The Fed's preferred inflation gauge; core PCE was 3.3% a year earlier last month. Any hotter and an October hike gets harder to avoid |
| Oct 1 | September ISM manufacturing PMI | 54.6 last month with prices paid at 71.1; if prices paid stays high, inflation is still in the pipeline |
| Oct 1 | Nike earnings (after the close) | A thermometer for trading down: US demand and inventories |
| Oct 2 | September payrolls | 162,000 jobs and 4.1% unemployment last month; strong hiring plus a 5% 10-year is the hawks' best argument |
| Earnings | Date | Timing | EPS est. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carnival Corporation Ltd. (CCL) | Sep 29 | – | 1.35 |
| Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) | Sep 30 | after close | 31.82 |
| NIKE, Inc. (NKE) | Oct 1 | after close | 0.44 |
Companies above $30B market value, from the yfinance earnings calendar; company announcements prevail.
Method and sources
- Weekly change = last close of this week ÷ last close of the previous week − 1 (2026-09-21 to 2026-09-25); indices and ETFs use adjusted closes.
- Prices, FX, commodities, crypto and calendars from Yahoo Finance (delayed); Treasury yields, real yields, breakevens, credit spreads and fed funds from FRED.
- Sectors are SPDR sector ETFs; styles are iShares Russell 1000 Growth/Value, MTUM, QUAL, USMV; themes are SMH (semiconductors) and IGV (software).
Reporting cited this week
- Weekly index moves and the Nasdaq record：TheStreet (Sep 25)
- Meta and Muse：TipRanks (Sep 21), Yahoo Finance
- Treasury yields and hike odds：Semafor (Sep 24), CNBC (Sep 24)
- The September Fed meeting：Charles Schwab, Seeking Alpha
- Oil：EnergyNow, OilPrice.com
This weekly is a research record based on public market data, written for all readers. It does not address anyone's personal finances and is not investment advice. Data are delayed; original sources prevail.
Data as of 2026-09-25 · 雅虎财经（行情、汇率、商品、日历）；FRED（美债收益率、信用利差、政策利率）